◂ Event Timeline

Aug 14, 2023MACROBrazil

Latam FX Talking: Full steam ahead with easing cycles

ING's Latam FX outlook notes Brazil and Chile launched easing cycles with larger-than-expected rate cuts, with Brazil's central bank delivering a 50bp cut after a Fitch upgrade. ING forecasts USD/BRL at 4.80 across horizons and sees Latin currencies continuing to outperform their forward curves.

WHY IT MATTERS

Expected Brazilian rate cuts and a firmer real could weigh on Brazilian export competitiveness for soymeal and corn, modestly supporting dollar-denominated feed prices.

AFFECTSUSDBRL▼

SOURCE
think.ing.comChris TurnerAug 14, 2023

Price reaction & history

USDBRL▼bearishSO FAR1d +1.2%5d +1.4%20d +0.8%

After 213 past bearish macro events, USDBRL moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

Sep 11, 2023Latam FX Talking: Large easing cycles in Brazil and Chile | articles | ING THINK-2.2%
Dec 13, 2022Latam FX: Fiscal fundamentals | articles | ING THINK-0.5%
Jul 10, 2024Latam FX Talking: Making the most of a short-lived rebound | articles | ING THINK+0.5%
Sep 15, 2025Latam FX Talking: Carry trade remains the dominant theme | articles | ING THINK-0.5%
Apr 11, 2023Latam FX Talking: Temporary setback for the Mexican peso | articles | ING THINK-2.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

USDBRL · GP ▸

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