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U.S. Wheat Associates outlines factors behind the recent surge in U.S. wheat futures, including strong Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans, corn and wheat, managed money inflows, a Russian wheat export tax increase, and dryness in the Plains. CBOT SRW and KC HRW futures reached their highest levels in over six years by late January.
Combined export demand from China and Russia's export tax support higher U.S. wheat values, pushing up wheat-based feed costs.
uswheat.orgFeb 4, 2021After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
