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Hard red winter wheat basis bids were flat across the southern Plains on July 10 as futures rallied and some farmers sold grain. KC September wheat rose more than 3% to $6.75 per bushel after Russia temporarily halted shipping through the Don-Azov channel.
USDA pegged 2026-27 US wheat production at 1.536 billion bushels, with HRW output at 471 million bushels, down from 497 million in June.
The smallest US wheat crop since 1970/71 and a Black Sea shipping halt tighten global wheat supply, supporting prices. Farmer selling to ease storage constraints adds some near-term supply that may cap basis gains.
sahmcapital.comJul 10, 2026After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
KC September wheat rose over 3% to $6.75 on July 10 on the Azov halt, and USDA cut HRW output to 471 million bushels, which tightens HRW supply.
