
USDA's January cattle inventory showed all cattle and calves at 93.595 million head, slightly below a year earlier, with downward revisions to prior years. The monthly cattle on feed report surprised analysts with bearish placement data.
Lower herd numbers support cattle prices over time, while bearish feedlot placements signal softer near-term feeder demand and lower feeder cattle prices.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.