
USDA's January cattle inventory showed 86.2 million head on January 1, 2026, down 0.3% from 2025. Analysts expect the herd will not expand until at least 2028, keeping cattle supplies tight and volatile.
A continued shrinking herd limits feeder cattle supply and supports higher cattle and beef prices, with heightened market sensitivity to news.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.