US Gulf Coast refiners are seeking crude and feedstock alternatives to Russian supplies following sanctions and the invasion of Ukraine. The shift would require replacing Russian barrels with supply from other origins.
Replacing Russian feedstock with US and other crude raises demand for alternative barrels and can tighten supply for refined products. This supports crude and product prices and adds cost pressure to diesel and freight.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.