USDA's July World Agricultural Supply and Demand outlook trimmed 2021 projected on-farm corn value by 10 cents to $5.60/bu and soybeans by 15 cents to $13.70/bu. Analysts cite reduced Chinese import demand and tight global carryover, with U.S. weather as the main remaining wild card.
Lower projected farm values reflect reduced China demand, but tight carryover keeps feed grain prices supported. Weather during the rest of the season will determine whether prices hold.
After 770 past neutral report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.