CBOT prices rebounded ahead of USDA's June 30 Acreage report, which FBN says will be market moving given tight old-crop corn and soybean stocks. JCI data showed China's weekly soy crush fell 1% to 1.66 million tonnes, down 9% year on year.
Tight old-crop stocks and a pending acreage report raise volatility risk for corn and soybeans, while slower Chinese crush eases import demand pressure.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.