US hog prices were significantly above EU and Canadian hog values, which began to weaken US pork export demand. China hog values had fallen as much as 60% from their peak, limiting demand there.
Packers were selling more aggressively to Mexico but Asian sales remained weak.
Weaker export demand combined with rising seasonal hog supplies this fall points to downside risk for pork and hog prices. Lower exports leave more pork domestically.
After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.