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Western urea values rose sharply as European gas prices surged and Ukrainian producers faced possible shutdowns. Yara planned to cut ammonia output by 40%, and Egyptian granular urea sold at $520/t fob, while US Gulf barge values recovered after Hurricane Ida.
Gas-driven production cuts in Europe and Ukraine are removing major nitrogen supply, which keeps global urea prices elevated and raises fertilizer costs for grain growers.
profercy.comChris YearsleySep 17, 2021After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
European gas-driven output cuts by Yara and Ukrainian shutdown risk tightened western urea supply and lifted values.
