
Yara's CEO warned that nitrogen fertilizer supplies are tightening as manufacturers cut output because of very high natural gas prices. Farmers are expected to reduce nitrogen application rates, and the European Union, a major nitrogen supplier, is seeing sharp production curtailments.
Gas-driven production cuts reduce global nitrogen supply and keep urea prices high. Reduced application rates could also lower yields and tighten grain supplies over time.
After 92 past bullish macro events, Urea moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.6%), and +4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.