
USDA's Wisconsin forecast shows winter wheat production at 8.40 million bushels, down 12% from 2019, on 20% fewer harvested acres. Oat production is forecast up 27% to 8.25 million bushels on 4% more acres.
Smaller Wisconsin wheat output tightens local wheat supply, while bigger oat output adds to oat supply. The net effect is supportive for wheat and bearish for oats.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.