Malaysia will raise the threshold for its palm oil windfall profit levy from next year, lifting the Peninsular Malaysia threshold to 3,000 ringgit from 2,500 and Sabah/Sarawak to 3,500 from 3,000, with a uniform 3% rate. The change was announced in the 2022 budget speech.
Higher thresholds leave more profit with planters, supporting production incentives at a time when output is at multi-year lows due to labor shortages. Tighter supply from Malaysia is supportive for palm oil prices and substitute vegetable oils.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.