Upper Midwest crops matured quickly after a warm late September, and soybean harvest was past 50 percent in many areas by month end. Soybean yields vary widely across the region because of differing drought impacts.
Early maturity and rapid harvest progress shorten the period of crop-weather risk. Uneven yields indicate local supply differences rather than a clear shift in national prices.
After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.