
US oat supplies for 2021-22 are forecast to be the lowest on record, with CME nearby oat futures at record highs. Food-grade oat flake prices were up 62% year on year in mid-October.
Drought in US and Canadian growing areas combined with rising demand from oat milk and snack products is tightening supply.
A record-low US oat crop with strong food demand points to continued firm oat prices for feed buyers, and tighter supply may pull more demand toward substitute feed grains.
After 68 past bullish weather events, Oats moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.