
Australian milling oat prices have reached their highest levels in many years amid strong domestic and export demand. ABARES expects under one million tonnes to be harvested in 2018-19, less than half the prior year, due to reduced area and lower yields in SA and Vic.
A sharp supply contraction with firm demand from China and eastern mills supports oat prices, which are trading above wheat. Prices may ease with harvest pressure, but high levels are expected to persist.
After 68 past bullish weather events, Oats moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.