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Bloomberg reports that US and European gas traders who bet on a mild winter are now exposed as a severe freeze grips much of America. The mispositioning is reverberating across global gas markets.
Short-covering and a sudden shift to tight supply expectations push gas prices higher, raising energy and nitrogen fertilizer costs for grain and feed producers.
After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.