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Cash-rich eurozone banks are converting euros into dollars before year-end, pushing three-month euro cross-currency basis swaps more negative. That means European traders are paying a premium to obtain dollars.
Strong year-end dollar demand supports the US dollar, which tends to pressure dollar-denominated commodity prices and makes US exports less competitive for euro buyers.
wsj.comCaitlin OstroffDec 14, 2021After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
