
Chinese government figures show the total hog herd shrank by 2 million head from July to September 2021 to 437 million, while slaughter estimates vary widely. Chinese soybean imports fell to 5.1 million tonnes in October from 9.9 million in August after a spring stockpiling spree.
Falling Chinese soybean imports and a smaller hog herd reduce feed demand, pressuring global soybean and meal prices, though rising pork prices support hog margins.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 85 past bullish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.8% to +4.5%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.