
Chinese soybean meal prices rose nearly 3% on March 3 as trade tensions escalated and China weighed retaliatory measures against US farm products. US export sales to China were at a 17-year low share of shipments as of January.
Chinese soybean and meal futures both rose sharply in late February.
Retaliation threats tighten expectations of US soybean demand loss in China, supporting domestic Chinese meal prices and redirecting import demand toward Brazil.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.