Black Sea region may enter new season with record sunflower seed stocks

After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Jul 7, 2022Ukraine exported a record amount of sunflower, but will cut production in half in the new season 07.07.2022 - UkrAgroConsult-1.5%
• Aug 25, 2026Cuts to Sunflower yields and Black Sea Disruption Converge+1.8%
• Nov 1, 2022Palm oil surges nearly 5% on worries over Black Sea supplies - Markets - Business Recorder+4.0%
• Apr 15, 2022Ukraine says grain on ships in blocked Black Sea ports may deteriorate | Reuters+3.2%
• Oct 31, 2022Palm rises over 4% after Russia pulls out of Black Sea export corridor - Markets - Business Recorder+3.1%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2022Palm oil surges nearly 5% on worries over Black Sea supplies - Markets - Business Recorder+13.1%
• Oct 31, 2022Palm rises over 4% after Russia pulls out of Black Sea export corridor - Markets - Business Recorder+11.7%
• Jul 24, 2023Palm oil up over news on Ukraine port attack - Markets - Business Recorder+0.1%
• Mar 11, 2022Analysis: Black Sea conflict may alter global trade patterns for grains, veg oil-5.3%
• Oct 31, 2022U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits | Reuters+11.7%