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Eurodollar futures show markets pricing roughly 220 basis points of Fed hikes over the next two years, with the terminal rate expected to be the peak of the cycle. Longer-dated contracts suggest rate cuts could follow in 2023 and 2024.
Expected peak rates and later cuts shape the dollar's medium-term path, which influences dollar-priced grain and oilseed values. A firmer dollar would weigh on export competitiveness for US commodities.
reuters.comGertrude Chavez-DreyfussFeb 18, 2022After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
