
The dollar eased from a 20-year high as the euro gained on rate expectations. Money markets raised bets on a 75 basis point Fed hike in September to about 70%, and two-year Treasury yields hit a 15-year high near 3.49%.
A firmer dollar and higher US yields pressure dollar-denominated commodity prices and raise import costs for currency-sensitive buyers, while a stronger dollar tends to weigh on US export competitiveness for grains and meals.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.