Euro-Dollar Driven by War, Not Rates: UniCredit

After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Aug 29, 2022Dollar eases off of 20-year high as euro boosted by rates view | Reuters+0.3%
• Apr 30, 2020Pound-Dollar Protected By Dovish FED, Focus For Sterling-Euro Rate Outlook On ECB And UK Lockdown | Exchange Rates UK-0.4%
• Feb 4, 2026ECB keeps rates unchanged, signal comfort with dollar weakness | Reuters+0.7%
• Apr 22, 2021Euro and U.S. dollar waffle as markets weigh ECB policy talk+0.5%
• Feb 5, 2026ECB holds rates but it's not a 'non-event,' economists say. Here's why+0.7%

After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.

• Feb 1, 2021U.S. dollar reaches six-week high on weaker euro, Swiss franc and yen+8.9%
• May 22, 2017Commodities Relief Rally As U.S. Dollar Breaks Down - InvestingHaven-1.3%
• Jan 29, 2024Canadian Dollar hesitates with Canada GDP, US Fed rate call in the pipe-7.3%
• Jul 1, 2018Rupee-dollar exchange rate at 69 now: 10 things you should know-0.3%
• Jan 13, 2018Colombia peso boosted by weak dollar and rising oil prices - Colombia News-1.0%