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Lombard Odier argues that broad commodity price increases, particularly in oil and natural gas, are now large enough to threaten consumption and earnings. It suggests this could moderate central bank tightening.
The analysis links elevated energy prices to inflation and possible slower demand, which bears on input costs for feed and livestock producers.
am.lombardodier.comAurèle Storno, CFA, Florian Ielpo, PhDMar 7, 2022After 487 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
After 155 past bullish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.0% to +7.1%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
