Oil prices settle up 4% despite big U.S. crude inventory build

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting | Reuters+9.6%
• Dec 20, 2023Oil settles up on Red Sea tensions; gains capped by US stock builds | Reuters+1.3%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil settles up nearly 5% as supply fears mount despite record stocks release plan | Reuters-1.3%
• Mar 30, 2023Oil rises over 1% on Iraqi supply risks, U.S. crude draw | Reuters+10.6%
• Jan 12, 2026Oil prices settle at 7-week high on worries about Iran exports | Reuters+0.7%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting | Reuters+10.8%
• Dec 20, 2023Oil settles up on Red Sea tensions; gains capped by US stock builds | Reuters+1.0%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil settles up nearly 5% as supply fears mount despite record stocks release plan | Reuters+4.1%
• Mar 30, 2023Oil rises over 1% on Iraqi supply risks, U.S. crude draw | Reuters+9.7%
• Jan 12, 2026Oil prices settle at 7-week high on worries about Iran exports | Reuters+2.0%