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PIIE commentary says China ordered firms to stop selling fertilizer abroad, a policy that began last summer and forced farmers elsewhere to leave fields fallow. The authors argue that China's trade moves on fertilizer, steel and pork add to global disruption alongside Russia's blockade.
Reduced Chinese fertilizer exports keep global nutrient supply tight, which raises input costs and may lower future crop output and feed grain supply.
piie.comApr 25, 2022After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
