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An IEA report says global diesel and gasoil availability fell 1.5 million bpd in Q2 and 1.7 million bpd in Q3 2026, driven by Middle East export disruptions, lower Russian output from Ukrainian drone strikes, and reduced Asian refining. On-land inventories are at their lowest since 2016 and a full recovery is not expected before mid-2027.
A prolonged distillate shortage keeps diesel and crude prices elevated, raising freight and processing costs throughout the feed chain into winter.
ognnews.comNov 1, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
