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NMPF chief economist Peter Vitaliano said futures markets may overstate the coronavirus price drop, but producers will feel lower milk checks over the next several months. Forecasts point to a price trough in May and June.
NMPF proposed USDA dairy purchases, compensation for milk disposal and reopened DMC signup.
Lagged pass-through of lower prices into farm milk checks means weak milk prices will persist through the spring.
nmpf.orgTheresa SweeneyApr 2, 2020After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Expectation of lower milk checks and a May-June price trough reinforced bearish sentiment during the window.
