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NMPF and U.S. Dairy Export Council economists said record 2022 milk prices are unlikely to repeat in 2023 as production rises and consumers face an economic slowdown. They expect exports to increase and demand to remain resilient.
Rising milk output against softer demand points to lower dairy prices in 2023, reducing dairy producers' capacity to pay premium feed prices.
After 49 past bearish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -8.5% to +0.6%), and -7.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.