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DTN analyst Joel Karlin compares the USDA's February outlook with the May WASDE, which cut 2022 U.S. corn production to 14.46 billion bushels on a 177 bpa yield and 89.5 million acres. The report raised U.S. soybean production to 4.64 billion bushels and forecast soybean meal prices down $20 to $400 per short ton.
Global 2022/23 corn output and stocks were lowered, while soybean output and stocks were raised.
A smaller U.S. corn crop and higher corn prices favor corn, while bigger soybean supplies and lower forecast meal prices weigh on soybeans and soymeal. For feed buyers, the shift makes soymeal relatively cheaper against corn.
dtnpf.comJoel KarlinMay 19, 2022After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
