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DTN analysis of USDA's May WASDE finds the 2023/24 corn stocks-to-use ratio at 13.8%, the highest old-crop May ratio since 2020, and the 2024/25 soybean ratio at 10.2%, the highest initial forecast since 2019. Corn planting is seen down 4.6 million acres on a record yield forecast of 181 bushels per acre, with tepid demand pointing to a carryout above 2.0 billion bushels.
Higher stocks-to-use ratios signal ample U.S. supply and weaker prices for corn and soybeans unless demand or weather changes. Limited Chinese purchases add to the bearish case.
dtnpf.comJoel KarlinMay 30, 2024After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
