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India's government fertiliser subsidy outlay is expected to rise sharply because continued disruption to Chinese DAP supply has pushed international fertiliser prices higher, according to a CareEdge Ratings report. China has withheld inspection clearances for DAP and speciality fertiliser exports to India since April 2025.
Higher international DAP prices raise India's import bill and subsidy needs, signalling sustained demand for imports and firm phosphate prices.
tribuneindia.comANIJul 29, 2025After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Continued Chinese DAP export disruption to India has pushed international prices higher, a direct supply-side driver of DAP strength.
Continued Chinese DAP export disruption to India is pushing international prices higher, which is a supply-side driver of the rally.
The CareEdge report ties continued Chinese DAP export disruption to higher international prices and a rising Indian subsidy outlay, which signals Indian willingness to pay and supports bullish sentiment.
The CareEdge report ties continued Chinese DAP disruption to higher international prices, reinforcing the supply-driven upward pressure.
