
Midwest biodiesel availability for July and August is limited, with some truck supply sold out, even as on-road diesel and B20 prices are at record retail levels. Demand for soybean oil from refiners converting plants to renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel is rising and driving feedstock prices higher.
Non-traditional renewable diesel demand is tightening soybean oil supply and lifting its price, which reduces meal-side economics and supports oil values for feed-crush operations.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.