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Nutrien's chief economist said global nitrogen prices are expected to decline into the third quarter, though Q4 conditions may stay volatile. He noted rumored further Chinese restrictions on urea exports, lower Chinese exports year to date, and sharply lower Russian ammonia supplies.
Natural gas and coal costs remain a key factor.
Expected Q3 softening is offset by possible Chinese urea export curbs and Russian ammonia shortfalls, so nitrogen costs for feed producers may stay volatile into the fall.
rrfn.comCarah HartJul 24, 2022After 176 past bullish trade events, UREA moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 17 past neutral trade events, NATGAS moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -4.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
