
USDA's July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates lowered 2022 and 2023 milk production forecasts on slower growth in milk per cow. The agency also raised 2022 butter prices on firm demand while lowering the cheese price forecast and the all-milk price to $26.15/cwt.
A USDA cattle report due July 22 was flagged to give a mid-year dairy cow inventory estimate.
Lower milk output forecasts support dairy prices, but a weaker cheese price forecast partly offsets that, so the net effect on milk prices is mixed.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.