
The USDA Market News dairy report shows lower farm milk output in California because of heat stress. Arizona production is falling but supplies are adequate, and New Mexico plants face surplus milk.
California August Class 1 prices were quoted at $18.32 to $18.59 per cwt.
Heat-related output losses in California are a small supply-side factor, and surplus milk in other states limits upward price pressure. The effect on national milk prices is modest.
After 136 past neutral report events, MILK moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.