
OPEC+ ratified an agreement to fully unwind in August the 9.7 million barrels per day of cuts made in April 2020. Ministers did not discuss further increases from September, but members will assess them before the 3 August meeting.
Brent is trading in a $100-120 range with low spare capacity.
Completing the unwinding adds supply to a market with little spare capacity, which limits upside risk for crude but leaves prices supported. Energy costs for feed production remain high.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.