
The euro's slide is deepening because the energy crisis is severe, and more aggressive ECB tightening is expected to do little to stop it. The euro fell below $0.99 for the first time since 2002 after Russia halted gas supplies through the main pipeline to Europe, and the currency is down 13% in 2022.
A weaker euro makes imports more expensive and can add to food and feed inflation in Europe. Russian gas cuts also raise European energy costs, which can reduce crushing and processing margins.
After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.