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Wheat prices rose 5-8% in the week before September 29 as Russia moved to annex occupied Ukrainian territories after disputed referendums. CBOT, KC and Euronext December wheat futures all gained, and rains delayed winter wheat sowing in Ukraine and Russia.
Putin is expected to announce annexation at the start of October.
Escalating conflict raises the risk of Black Sea supply disruption and nuclear escalation, keeping wheat prices elevated and raising feed grain costs.
ukragroconsult.comSep 29, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
