
USDA's November supply and demand report expects 2022 milk production to rise and then hold steady in 2023, with output per cow increasing while cow inventories decline. USDA lowered its 2022 all-milk price forecast by 10 cents to $25.50/cwt and its 2023 forecast by 30 cents to $22.60/cwt.
Larger milk supplies and weaker butter, cheese and nonfat dry milk prices point to lower dairy product values and softer Class III and IV milk prices for feed buyers to factor into dairy demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.