USDA data show total US domestic milk consumption returned to positive annual growth in the third quarter of 2022 for the first time since early in the year, led by cheese. Dairy export volumes eased from a record pace but are still on track for a record calendar year.
CME futures and USDA outlooks point to milk prices $2.50 to $3.00/cwt lower in 2023.
Stronger domestic demand supports dairy use, but the projected $2.50 to $3.00/cwt drop in 2023 milk prices signals weaker dairy farm returns and tighter feed budgets.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.