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Rabo Research's Global Dairy Quarterly for Q4 2022 expects weak global dairy prices in 2023 as milk output rises in the US, Canada and Europe and cheese stocks are strong. US milk production rose 1.2% year over year in the fourth quarter.
Rising global milk supply and weak prices reduce dairy producer returns and pressure dairy-based feed demand into 2023.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.