
Dairy markets fell sharply this week after USDA's Milk Production report showed July output of 19.57 billion pounds, up 3.5% year over year, with the herd at 9.485 million head. Butter inventories fell 24 million pounds in July, though cold storage stocks were 6.1% below last year.
Strong milk output and a growing herd point to ample dairy supply, pressuring dairy product prices and the milk price outlook for feed buyers' dairy customers. Feed demand from expanding herds supports steady feed purchases.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.