
USDA's July Milk Production report showed the U.S. dairy herd grew by 19,000 cows in June to 9.677 million head, 192,000 more than a year earlier and the largest since 1993. Milk output reached 19.7 billion pounds, up 2.3% from June 2025.
A semi-annual Cattle inventory report showed 200,000 more dairy cows and 100,000 more mature heifers on July 1.
Faster herd and milk growth adds supply to dairy markets, which pressures Class III and Class IV milk prices. Rising heifer numbers signal further expansion ahead.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.