Canola prices jumped on the first trading day of 2023 on concerns about Argentine dryness, the driest in over 30 years, with analysts cutting crop estimates. Canola traded within a tight $800 to $900 per tonne range, and US and Canadian crush rose sharply in November.
Argentine drought and strong North American crush support oilseed meal and oil prices, tightening canola supplies ahead of the marketing year end.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.