Dairy Management Inc.'s January 2023 market report says retail dairy price inflation weighed on domestic consumption of milk and butter during September–November. U.S. dairy exports are on track for a record share of milk solids production (about 18%), supporting prices.
The national average milk price is gradually declining from its May all-time high.
Strong exports are offsetting weaker domestic demand, which supports dairy prices, but falling butter and cheese prices point to softer milk prices ahead for dairy-based feed demand.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.