Dairy Management Inc.'s May report says the current milk production growth period is the weakest since 1996, with downward pressure on prices. Domestic butter consumption rebounded in February and March, and the Dairy Margin Coverage margin fell to about $6/cwt in March, its lowest since summer 2021.
Weak milk output growth with rebounding demand offers some support, but a shrinking margin signals persistent price pressure on dairy producers.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.