Dairy Margin Coverage margin fell $0.40/cwt to $15.17 in October, still the second-highest level since the program began. U.S. fluid milk sales rose 1.3% year over year, and the national milking herd grew by 10,000 cows, suggesting a return to production expansion.
Cheese stocks fell near pre-pandemic levels.
A returning herd expansion and rising output point to more milk supply ahead, which tempers dairy price strength despite firm consumption and tight cheese stocks.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.