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StoneX's Craig Turner called the January WASDE bullish versus expectations, with old-crop soybean and corn stocks tighter and wheat stocks at 567 million bushels. Winter wheat seedings rose by over 3.5 million acres, with HRW up 2.3 million acres.
Tighter old-crop stocks support corn and soybean prices, but the larger winter wheat area adds bearish supply pressure for wheat if yields hold up. Double-cropping could lower soybean yield estimates.
stonex.comCraig TurnerJan 12, 2023After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
